原标题：台民调乱象丛生尽显政治算计参考消息网9月13日报道香港《亚洲周刊》9月12日一期发表报道称，台湾岛内参选人在选举季各出奇招，其中民调被认为是重要武器之一，很多人将它加以“修正”，以挫对手锐气。    New York-traded West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled down 97 cents, or almost 1%, at $98.53. The intraday low was $95.17, a bottom not seen since the week ended April 8. In just two sessions, the US crude benchmark had lost almost $15 or 14%.,Citigroup says WTI could collapse to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and slump to $45 by end-2023 if a demand-crippling recession hits.,London-traded Brent crude, settled at $100.69, down $2.08 or 2.02%. Earlier, it broke below the $100 mark the first time since April 25, hitting a session low of $98.59. Like WTI, Brent has also lost almost $15, or 13%, over two days of trading.,West May Use Proposed Russian Oil Price Cap Scheme for Gas Price, Von Der Leyen SaysYesterday, 12:20 GMT,A cluster of economic data of late has suggested that the United States may be headed for an economic slowdown - possibly a recession - as the Federal Reserve embarks on the most aggressive rate hikes in a generation to tame inflation roaring at 40-year highs.,A closely-watched gauge of the US services sector fell to its lowest in 20 months in June.,Separately, the US Labor Department signaled that the red-hot labor market may be starting to cool. Job openings, as measured by its monthly survey, fell in May, to a level of 11.254 million that is still high by historical comparison.,The job openings data came ahead of Friday’s more important June non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show a smaller jobs growth compared with May. Economists say some 268,000 payrolls were probably added last month - versus the 390,000 in May - holding unemployment at 3.6% for a third straight month. A jobless rate of 4% or below is seen by the Federal Reserve as full employment.,“While our view remains that higher consumer prices are required to balance the oil market this summer, we acknowledge that significant and large shocks continue to distort fundamentals,” Goldman Sachs said in an energy market outlook.,Blockage of Russian Bond Payments to Erode Dollar Dominance, French Economist Says27 June, 15:29 GMT,A rocketing dollar ahead of more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, or Fed, has also shaken the roots of the energy rally seen since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February and the resulting sanctions on Moscow.,The Dollar Index, which pits the greenback against six major currencies, continued its ascent from overnight, leaping to above 107, its highest since December 2002. The dollar has rallied with few stops since November last year on bets of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, or Fed, which has just started delivering on those expectations.,The drone of recession talk is expected to get louder across the United States after the Atlanta division of the Federal Reserve forecast last week a second straight quarter of economic decline for the year. The Commerce Department officially reported a 1.6% economic contraction in the first quarter.,The Federal Reserve, in minutes of its June policy meeting released on Wednesday, said it saw a real danger of high inflation becoming entrenched in the US economy and the only way to balance runaway prices with growth was to have appropriate interest rate hikes.,The central bank is expected to push ahead with another three-quarter percentage point interest rates hike this month, potentially taking key lending rates to between 2.25% and 2.5% range from the 0 - 0.25% range they stood at in February.。

B | 在台湾，民调已经“变调”，不再是单纯探询民意，很多时候成为竞选文宣，最近就发生这样的案例。

C | 报道称，针对台北市长选举，近日有两家民调公司的民调结果落差很大，引发议论。最新TVBS民调显示，国民党参选人蒋万安目前民调第一，领先无党籍参选的台北市前副市长黄珊珊，民进党参选人陈时中居第三；但另一家《放言》民调则显示，陈时中目前拿下第一，其次为蒋万安、黄珊珊。两份民调最大差异在于蒋万安的支持度相差了近10个百分点，陈时中与黄珊珊的差异不大。所以究竟要如何评判哪份民调较准确呢？TVBS是老字号的民调先驱，固定在选举期间发布民调，被认为信用可靠。《放言》则是由亲绿的资深媒体人周玉蔻创办，委托山水民调公司进行该次民调，山水亦是家老牌民调公司，但曾被指“有民进党的影子”。“基本上，民调已经变成文宣的一部分，”台北市长柯文哲说，“你想要看什么样的民调，都可以做给你看。”言下之意是大家不用太认真看待。台湾联合新闻网9月12日的报道也关注了岛内民调乱带风向的问题。报道说，台湾地区年底地方选举进入民调、网络声量作战阶段，但既有民调公司替特定参选人量身打造调查方式，也有通过网络让支持者灌票方便带风向，更有人月烧百万新台币（1元新台币约合0.22元人民币——本网注）请网军攻击对手。“选举资讯战”打得火热，选民却看得半信半疑。学者提醒，未符合统计学基本要件的民调都充满政治算计。民调业者透露，有些民调公司会推出类似“假民调”，甚至有“包你赢”民调，从问题设计到调查方法，故意有利于特定参选人。另外，新闻或门户网站推出的网络民调很流行，但也最具争议，因为容易出现支持者重复投票的灌票现象，许多民调结果会与民众想象差异极大，有带风向的特定目的。报道称，针对民调怪象丛生，台湾艺术大学广电系教授赖祥蔚说，民调常被当成选举工具，最早是在问卷题目或样本上动手脚，使用引导式题目或抽调样本以获得想要的结果，更夸张的是没实际做民调就报数据。台大政治学系教授王业立认为，网络投票参考就好，这种调查基本上未符合统计学基本要件，但因结果可能对于中间选民起带风向作用、让民调落后者被弃保（指某政党或参选人因担忧同类型的参选人瓜分选票，就会喊出“弃保”的口号，希望选民将选票集中在有机会胜出的参选人身上——本网注），算是种政治算计。

D | 报道说，坊间民调依调查题数与样本数要价约12万到50万，除一般民调公司，市场调查中心、学术机构和新闻网站也抢食民调大饼，出现许多怪象。台湾联合新闻网9月12日的另一篇文章也说，一场地方选举，全台花费超过百亿。选战本来就存在严重的“贫富差距”现象，如今还有参选人为了带风向、操作弃保，花钱通过民调公司做手脚，以引导式题目、拿掉不利样本等方式进行假民调，企图欺骗选民、赢得胜选，更令人难以接受。

E | 文章说，部分有钱的参选人光操弄民调还不够，竟还聘请网军，通过散布对手负面信息的手法来洗白自己声量。文章称，这种用金钱堆砌起来的选举现象，成功帮许多参选人调整“人设”、让相关业者赚得盆满钵满也就算了，更严重的是选民也被蒙在鼓里，这早已脱离选举本质，只会让有资源的参选人越来越极端，“选战资讯战”也会让台湾选举更混乱。

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